Iran’s leadership is betting it can outlast an under-pressure Donald Trump in its peace negotiations with Washington, but its defiance risks renewed military confrontation, analysts say.
With a shaky ceasefire holding, almost two-and-a-half months after the US-Israeli war against the Islamic republic began, the US president has angrily dismissed Iran’s responses to an American proposal for a settlement, warning the truce is on its last legs.
But analysts say that even after the assassination of long-time supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iran’s leadership remains fiercely ideological and dedicated to the preservation of the Islamic republic set up in the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah.
“They do think they can outlast Trump. The war is existential for them,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, told AFP.
Iran understands that by blocking the Strait of Hormuz — the first time it has restricted shipping traffic in the key bottleneck for trade and energy supplies after years of threats — it has a major strategic lever.
Trump, meanwhile, is under pressure to find an off-ramp to the conflict, which has proven unpopular at home and driven up prices at the pump, with midterm elections right around the corner.
Iran “is committed to negotiations, but what they don’t want is surrender. They want to extract concessions because of their improved hand,” Vakil said.
“They are prepared for another round of conflict and they are ready to gamble on that, which is a risk as the costs for Iran would be huge.”
‘Overplayed its hand’ before
Analysts say it remains unclear who is currently running Iran, with the slain supreme leader’s son and successor, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, likely involved in decision-making but not the only player in a scene dominated by the ideologically driven Revolutionary Guards.
Parliament speaker and Guards veteran Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as Iran’s frontman in negotiations, said on Tuesday there was “no alternative” to the plan submitted by Iran to Trump.
“For the leadership, the perception is that negotiating the best conditions possible is essential to their very survival,” said Thomas Juneau, a professor at Ottawa University. “They are therefore entirely willing to absorb significant economic pain if it means waiting out Trump.”
Juneau said the “Hormuz lever is essential for Iran”, with the leadership calculating that Trump will lose patience with the ensuing higher oil prices as the US midterms near.
But he cautioned that the leadership was taking a gamble, facing a “hugely discontented population” in the wake of January protests, a struggling economy, and major damage to civilian and military infrastructure after US-Israeli attacks.
“The Islamic Republic has overplayed its hand in the past, and it absolutely is at risk of doing so again,” he said.
‘More intransigent’
Summing up Tehran’s official stance, a new giant billboard appeared this week in Valiasr Square in the capital, depicting Trump’s mouth bound by a Hormuz-shaped gag alongside the slogan “At the breaking point”.
Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University, said Iran’s leadership believed it had a “magic bullet” in its control of Hormuz and was hoping to “corner” Trump into obtaining better terms.
“It appears a bit delusional. It might backfire and lead to resumption of war by Trump or Israel,” he said.
But journalist and political analyst Maziar Khosravi told AFP in Tehran that Trump and Israel could no longer wield the threat of military action to pressure the leadership.
“Trump could try the military option again, hoping to eliminate another layer of leadership in the Islamic Republic,” he said. “But this doesn’t seem like a viable option to me, because each new generation of leaders coming to power is more intransigent than the last.”
Vakil said neither side wanted to see a resumption of full hostilities, but noted it wasn’t out of the question, saying the Trump administration appeared to fundamentally misunderstand the rigidity of the Iranian leadership’s mindset.
“The military path is unlikely to push Iran into submission. The Trump administration lacks a true appreciation for the Islamic republic’s ideological position. It sees everything from a military vantage point.”
