The two most effective globally recognised tools to combat climate change are: 1) mitigating its causes, and 2) adapting to its effects. The Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement unequivocally emphasise that developed countries – Global North – bear the primary responsibility for reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and providing financial and technological assistance to developing countries – Global South – to enable them to pursue low-carbon development pathways, despite their comparatively smaller historical contributions to global emissions.
Annual global climate conferences aim to set ambitious targets for reducing GHG emissions. Subsequent years involve reviewing the performance of all countries against these targets. To date, only a few nations, notably those in the EU and Scandinavia, have achieved even a modest level of success in meeting their emission reduction targets. The majority of countries are falling short, raising serious concerns that the global goal of limiting global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius will remain unattainable if current trends persist.
Three primary contributors to climate change are the combustion of fossil fuels for energy; agricultural methane emissions, primarily from livestock; and deforestation. Burning coal, oil and natural gas for electricity, industry and transportation releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Livestock farming, particularly ruminants, produces substantial amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Deforestation, driven by agriculture, logging and development, releases stored carbon dioxide and diminishes the capacity of forests to absorb atmospheric carbon. Key mitigation strategies include enhancing energy efficiency across all sectors, transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower, and actively engaging in afforestation and reforestation efforts to increase carbon sequestration and mitigate climate change.
The international community has set ambitious climate goals, requiring both Global North and South to halve emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050. These targets are applied indiscriminately, regardless of a country’s historical contribution to emissions. Pakistan, with less than 1% of global emissions, has committed to these targets in its Nationally Determined Contribution, but this commitment is contingent upon receiving adequate climate finance from developed countries.
While some funding has been received, it primarily consists of investments or relatively easy loans. Securing funding for mitigation projects has proven less challenging compared to adaptation projects, which often require more significant upfront investments. Despite the lackluster financial support from developed countries, many developing nations are awaiting the fulfillment of these pledges before significantly scaling up their climate action efforts.
Pakistan has committed to halving its carbon emissions by 2030, but its current trajectory is concerning. Renewable energy currently constitutes only 6% of the country’s energy mix, and the ongoing energy crisis severely hinders efforts to increase this share. Transitioning to renewable energy sources requires substantial investment beyond the costs of installation and operation. Pakistan faces significant resource constraints and limitations in planning and monitoring capacity, making it difficult to achieve this transition within budgetary limits.
Furthermore, the country’s transportation sector is highly inefficient. The industrial sector grapples with numerous challenges, including high energy costs, water scarcity, high input costs and a volatile business environment. Imposing emission limits and penalties on industries could further exacerbate these challenges, potentially hindering economic growth.
Adapting to climate change presents a significant challenge due to the lack of robust and measurable indicators to assess progress and build resilience. A standardised framework for quantifying adaptation levels and resilience is currently absent. This lack of clear metrics contributes to the reluctance of developed countries to provide adequate climate finance to developing nations. Qualitative assessments of funding utilisation are deemed insufficient to guarantee effective resilience to climate change impacts.
This is exemplified in Pakistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which highlight ambitious projects like the Billion Tree Tsunami and Recharge Pakistan. However, the evaluation of these projects relies heavily on achieving predetermined targets, similar to traditional government schemes, offering limited insights into actual adaptation outcomes and resilience enhancement.
Pakistan faces a critical shortage of technically qualified personnel for both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The limited pool of experts often comprises foreign-trained professionals with experience in developed countries where project implementation is generally facilitated by a more streamlined and less bureaucratic environment. To address this, a crucial step is to introduce specialised advanced-level courses in universities to cultivate a skilled workforce capable of designing and implementing adaptation projects that meet international standards and attract funding from developed nations.
To effectively mitigate climate change, the government must overhaul its air pollution control infrastructure. Currently, air quality management rests with Environmental Protection Agencies, while there is no dedicated authority with the power to compel industries and power plants to offset their excessive carbon emissions. Carbon markets present a promising solution, but the specific rules for their implementation remain undisclosed, despite being showcased at COP29.
The entire air pollution control system requires a comprehensive overhaul to enhance both its operational efficiency and supervisory capacity. Concurrently, the transportation sector needs to be liberalised to attract corporate investment in public transport, moving away from the current monopoly held by conventional operators.
To successfully achieve its climate targets for 2030 and 2050, the government must shift from a conventional management approach to a visionary one. This requires not only the effective development and implementation of current NDCs but also a proactive expansion of both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Simply satisfying global donors with paperwork will no longer suffice. In the age of AI, impressive reports with captivating facts and figures can be easily generated. Genuine progress and impactful action will be paramount in securing continued support and achieving meaningful climate outcomes.
