Pakistan living in a turbulent world

Pakistan is located in a region that is near-total collapse. Could the country escape some of the gathering storm or would it follow the nations that have succumbed to various kinds of internal and external tensions? The answer to this important question depends on how aware are Islamabad’s policymakers of the difficulties they are their neighbours face in the near – and long-term. The article today is to provide an overview of the difficulties a nation, such as Pakistan, situated as it is, should factor into its view of the changing world.

There are several sources of possible tensions in the region that Islamabad must contend with as it gets engaged in making both domestic and external policies. The most serious of these is the confusion created in international affairs by the Donald Trump-Elon Musk team that governs from Washington.

The team arrived in Washington with the intention of making America great again. This was translated into a slogan – MAGA – that adorned their red headwear well as those of the large legions of their followers. If they carry out what they have promised in their statements and speeches, we will see a significant change in the way America works with the world. Pakistan will be one of the most affected countries.

The Trump-Musk team is in the process of dismantling the world order constructed under the leadership of the United States in the post Second World War era. This order had several important features aimed at creating global stability. This, as the economist John Maynard Keynes was to point out, was not the aim of the victors in the First World War (1914-1919).

One of the more important elements in the global order introduced in 1945 was Washington’s willingness to let democracy prevail in the way the world nations conducted their dealings with one another. Size and wealth were not the most important elements in world affairs. This has been abandoned by the Trump-Musk team.

For the governing team, the most important feature of the programme they are busy implementing is to reduce the debt their government carries. To accomplish this, they are working hard to reduce deficits in both internal and external accounts. The sharp fall in the New York stock market on the morning of February 6 was a good indication of the way people were reacting to the moves made by the rulers in Washington.

The other big shock delivered by the ruling Trump-Musk team is a part of the way it is dealing with the developing world, now generally called the Global South. Washington is now in the process of dismantling the United States Agency for International Development, the USAID. The large resources managed by the Agency come from government budget.

Anxious to reduce the government deficit, the team has drastically cut the amount dispersed to the countries of the Global South as grants-in-aid. Several countries across the globe that had large USAID offices have seen the Americans pack their bags and head back home. The offices in Islamabad and the provincial capitals have seen both staff reductions and, in the amounts, available for the programmes that aimed to reduce the incidence of poverty in the country. These programmes were especially important in the tribal areas that straddle the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The timing of this reduction comes when Pakistan has seen a sharp rise in the incidence of terrorism in the tribal areas. This could not possibly be the aim of the Trump-Musk team.

The next big Trump-Musk team move is to openly woo Putin and Russia. They delivered the message via the way they dealt with Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian President whose country had been invaded in February 2022 by the Russian forces under the overall command of the Russian president. While the meetings in Washington’s White House are usually limited to principal participants attending the discussions in the Oval Office, the one attended by Zelensky, Trump and Musk was open to the press. “This is going to be great television – I will say that,” said Trump who had made a name for himself after being the lead in the popular TV programme, The Apprentice.

Wrote Maureen Dowd of The New York Times, “It looked like a setup. JD Vance, a malign presence who has said he does not care a fig about Ukraine, chided Zelensky for not being grateful enough to America, i.e. Trump. ‘Have you said Thank you once this entire meeting?’ he asked Zelensky who has thanked America over and over. Trump barked at Zelensky, you’re gambling with World War III and wagged a finger at him. You’re going to be more thankful because, let me tell you, you don’t have the cards. With us you have the cards, but without us you don’t have the cards.”

When a reporter asked what would happen if Russia broke the ceasefire again, Trump snapped, “What if anything? What if a bomb drops on your head right now?” It was clear from these exchanges received on the televisions that Trump was looking for TV drama which he got.

With Trump in the White House and with Musk standing behind him most of the time, it had become clear to analysts that there was now a sharp difference between pretense and reality. Henry Kissinger remarked in 2018 at the beginning of the president’s first term in office that “Trump may be one of those figures in history who appear from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretenses. The old pretense was that America was fully capable of playing the hegemonic role it played 20 years ago, fully involved in reshaping the world, fully supporting democratic allies in all world regions, prepared to fight wars across the world, and refusing any accommodation with authoritarianism in all parts of the world, in particular in Moscow and Beijing. America’s European partners are strong nations able and willing to protect themselves from all adversaries.”

But in the Trump-Musk era, reality is much different. America is overstretched. A more multipolar world requires working with unpleasant regimes that have carved out space for themselves in various regions. This means that Washington will have to recalibrate and retrench in manners that would require much more from its allies. Europeans in particular have responded by seeking greater self-sufficiency in the world marked by Trump and Musk.