WASHINGTON:
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice president, leads Republican Donald Trump by 45% to 41% ahead of the November 5 election. This 4-point lead is wider than the 1-point advantage she had in late July.
The poll, conducted over eight days, indicates that Harris is gaining support, particularly among women and Hispanic voters. She holds a 13-point lead over Trump in both demographics, a significant increase from her previous 9-point lead among women and 6-point lead among Hispanics. Trump continues to lead among white voters and men, but his support among voters without a college degree has narrowed from a 14-point lead in July to 7 points.
The poll illustrates a shift in the US presidential race following a turbulent summer. President Joe Biden, 81, ended his campaign on July 21 after a poor debate performance against Trump led to calls from fellow Democrats for him to step aside.
Since then, Harris has gained ground in both national polls and key battleground states. However, while national polls offer insights into voter sentiment, the ultimate winner will be decided through the Electoral College, where swing states are expected to play a crucial role. In seven battleground states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada — Trump leads Harris by 45% to 43%.
Matt Wolking, a Republican strategist who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign, acknowledged that Harris presents a challenge for Trump but noted that the race remains competitive. He emphasized the importance of Trump focusing on his campaign to avoid alienating voters who might have supported him due to their opposition to Biden. Since Harris officially accepted the Democratic nomination, she has been campaigning in battleground states, including Georgia, where Biden had been losing support prior to his withdrawal.
The poll also reflects growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 73% reporting they are more excited about voting now that Harris is the candidate. This contrasts with a March poll in which 61% of Biden supporters said their primary motivation was to oppose Trump. In the latest poll, 52% of Harris supporters stated they were voting for her because they supported her as a candidate, rather than simply opposing Trump. Aimee Allison, founder of the liberal group She the People, commented that Harris represents the future for many voters, energising them more than a race focused solely on Trump.
Trump’s supporters also showed enthusiasm, with 64% stating their motivation was to back him rather than simply oppose Harris.
The poll indicates that Trump is viewed as stronger on the economy, with 45% of voters favoring his economic policies compared to 36% for Harris. However, Harris has a clear advantage on abortion policy, with 47% of voters supporting her stance compared to 31% for Trump. This issue remains critical for Democrats following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to strike down the national right to abortion, a move facilitated by Trump’s appointment of three conservative justices during his presidency.
In the poll, 41% of voters expressed concern about the potential for the next president to sign a national abortion ban, with 70% of Democrats sharing this concern.
The poll’s survey period overlapped with the Democratic National Convention, where Harris formally accepted the nomination, raising questions about whether the surge in enthusiasm will continue. The poll, conducted nationally, included responses from 4,253 US adults, with 3,562 of them being registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 6% support in the poll, though he suspended his campaign on August 23, before the poll concluded.
