THERE is growing concern regarding the shockingly higher-than-anticipated intercensal population growth rates of 2.55 per cent between 2017 and 2023.
An already high, unsustainable population growth rate has increased instead of going down. We have added 110 million people to our population in 25 years and boast the highest growth rate in South Asia.
The Population Council and UNFPA’s report Pakistan@2050 addresses demographic change, future projections, and the consequent challenges and opportunities vis-à-vis Pakistan’s development landscape. It leaves no doubt how important it is to tackle the existential crisis of population growth.
The study puts to rest much of the debate about a demographic dividend in Pakistan: a dividend is unlikely if each additional person consumes more than what is earned. It also underscores the flat trends in labour productivity which have cancelled out the expectation that the increase in labour force would yield dividends.
The cost of inaction in achieving a fertility transition and a reduction in population growth rate since the 1980s is high. The study lays out the huge loss caused by high population growth in the last few decades in economic terms. Pakistan’s GDP would have been 56pc higher if the population growth had been even half a percentage point lower since the 1980s. Poverty levels and maternal deaths — other important indicators — could have been severely reduced.
Of even greater concern is that we are on track to reach a population of 385m Pakistanis by 2050. Already stretched resources, water and food shortages and, above all, high unemployment and a troubled economy do not point to a rosy future for an additional 140m in Pakistan. There are also concerns regarding the lack of education, skills and knowledge base. This puts our labour force at a disadvantage in today’s fiercely competitive markets.
The report calculates that 2.6m additional jobs are required annually between 2023 and 2050. At the moment, it is mainly the services sector which has largely absorbed the surge of additional workforce. We face challenges in absorbing the full workforce and will need to plan for it. Major structural changes are required to generate growth in manufacturing and agriculture to absorb the additional 65m Pakistanis who will enter the labour force in the next 25 years.
The cost of inaction in achieving a fertility transition and a reduction in population growth rate since the 1980s is high.
We can safely expect over 50pc of Pakistanis to be living in urban areas by 2050. The large volume of rural-to-urban migration is due more to the push of shrinking employment opportunities in agriculture and poverty, and less to the pull of better prospects in the urban areas. The lack of structural changes that accompany urban transitions elsewhere are of concern. This includes the lack of any sharp decline in the continuing high rates of fertility in cities and towns.
There is a message of hope though — if the leadership prioritises two clear policy directions. The two policy actions can effectively make a change in the number of Pakistanis, and how educated and how economically sound they will be by 2050. These actions offer a way to redress some factors that impede development. Both are already accepted policies of the government. But there is evidence that immediate implementation can make a significant difference.
The strongest message is that bringing fertility down is a necessity. The goal of the Council of Common Interests is to bring fertility down to 2.2 replacement levels by 2030. This is unlikely, but not impossible. Many countries in this region like Iran and Nepal, and Bangladesh have accomplished a decline in fertility of over one child in a decade.
There is strong reason to believe that Pakistan can experience a fast fertility decline. A recent Population Council report estimates that almost half of the pregnancies in Pakistan are unplanned and 3.8m end annually as abortions and 2m as unplanned births. This confirms that there is a huge gap between demand for and supply of family planning services for families in need of these.
The second necessary policy is the implementation of compulsory primary education for all children by 2028. This is obligatory as mandated by Article 25A of the Constitution. Furthermore, the government has declared an education emergency. It is necessary also to rectify the shameful figure of 25m out-of-school children.
Immediate joint efforts by the centre and provinces should ensure that measures are put in place through expanding the school network, hiring more teachers and doing double shifts to meet this emergency. A full generation of Pakistani children in school completing primary education would signal the intent to walk the talk of an educational emergency.
These two actions alone will lead to 50m fewer Pakistanis and doubling of the per capita income by 2050. We will be able to claim a full generation of children having completed primary education and a generation of educated mothers in another few years.
Both these actions are based on the human rights agenda. Additionally, they will provide the tailwind to catch up with key SDG goals on health, hunger and poverty, education and climate change by 2030. The report stresses that gender inequities, particularly involving women and girls, deserve special attention. Their education and labour force participation is essential for any social or economic transformation.
Evidence is given that Pakistan’s demographic and development trajectory today would have been totally different had there been investment in female education. It would certainly have ensured that some key development outcomes and even our fertility levels would have been more in line with our neighbouring countries in South Asia.
The finance minister recently declared that a charter of economy must include population growth and environment. It is an ideal opportunity to prioritise the goals related to these and reverse the demographic crisis. It could be achieved by running a vigorous campaign to increase access to voluntary family planning. Pakistan’s birth rate can be brought down to sustainable levels.
The writer is Country Director, Population Council.
Published in Dawn, November 23th, 2024
