A new peace accord – Newspaper

PAKISTAN has paid a heavy price for terrorism, not only in terms of losing thousands of lives but also the weakening of its economy, social cohesion, and governance.

The crisis has stigmatised its image, and most crucially, society is losing its confidence. While other issues, such as a fragile democracy, the dominance of security institutions in decision-making, and fractured elites, contribute to the crisis, terrorism remains the driving force behind these problems, pushing the country towards an unpredictable future.

Pakistan felt triumphant when US President Donald Trump acknowledged the country’s cooperation in arresting a terrorist responsible for the Abbey Gate attack in Kabul in August 2021, which killed 13 US soldiers.

Analysts predicted that Pakistan had found a way to earn the trust of the Trump administration, signalling a desire to strengthen relations with the US. Despite the geopolitical and diplomatic constraints, such narratives created a feeling of warmth in Islamabad, which is trying to find opportunities to win Washington’s trust. However, a few American commentators also saw it as naivety on the part of Pakistan.

One can imagine the collective reaction if the US were to place Pakistan on a travel ban list, nullifying all enthusiasm sparked by Trump’s statement. Media reports would cite security concerns, with the Trump administration believing that several nations, including us, are not fit to live in a free society. It would be an insult to the nation and a failure of state institutions, highlighting the continuous destabilisation that has increased fragility in the country.

Development, security, governance, economy, and social cohesion are suffering, touching the bottom of all international indexes. To underscore a statistic quoted in Tariq Khosa’s recent op-ed on these pages, “nearly 40 per cent of Pakistanis wanted to leave due mainly to economic woes, political uncertainty, lack of employment and educational opportunities, inflation, and terrorism”.

Terrorism is a curse that exacerbates other crises that nations face. The Institute for Economics & Peace’s (IEP) latest global terrorism index shows that the countries and regions most affected by terrorism are among those with poor economic and governance indicators.

Pakistan stands second in the terrorism index, just slightly below Burkina Faso, which has been at the top for the last three years. Pakistan has been a constant member of the top 10 countries for the last decade and a half, with its best ranking being ninth. Several nations have appeared in the top 10 rankings but have managed to leave within a few years. Israel quickly rose to number two in just one year and now sits at eighth, while Iraq took a little more time to improve its ranking. Afghanistan is currently at ninth, and India at 14th.

There must be greater focus by the state and others on cultivating peace among citizens.

The IEP is a global think tank that measures the correlation between peace and economy, and its methodology to gauge correlation and developing indicators is rooted in the theory of social change, which explains how societies transform and evolve. The IEP has theorised that substantial economic improvements are linked to improvements in peace.

The improvement in peace is not enough, as sometimes negative peace can be managed through corrective measures, as in Afghanistan or some other authoritarian regimes, but positive peace is the key, which is defined as the attitudes, institutions, and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.

Through statistical analysis, the institute gauged that violence has adverse implications for the broader economy, both in the short and long term, as it hinders productivity and economic activity, destabilises institutions, and reduces business confidence. To be brief, violence increases both production costs and security expenditures, reducing the propensity and quality of human resources and products.

It is conceivable that a country ranked among the top 10 for terrorism over the past two decades would have experienced significant societal trauma, especially among those directly exposed to the threat and living in constant fear. Institutions dealing with these threats would have undergone severe conditioning, leading to the stereotyping and stigmatising of their own people and communities.

Psychological and social behaviour studies suggest that under such conditions, the capacity for institutions to think creatively or rethink their strategies is greatly diminished. According to statistics compiled by an Islamabad-based research institute, terrorism-related deaths in Pakistan surged by 73pc last month compared to the previous month, with nearly 62pc of the total fatalities occurring in Balochistan, highlighting the growing insurgency in the province. This pace of increase in terrorism fatalities is alarming. One cannot ignore or escape the numbers; denying them is not an option. The only way to counter these distressing statistics is through positive action to improve them.

State institutions, the clergy, and political and social elites must focus more on cultivating peace among the citizenry and developing zero tolerance for religious and racial hatred. All counterterrorism approaches need to be transformed and must be goal-oriented. For example, setting a goal for the next five years to make Pakistan free from all forms of violence and extremism can produce a solid roadmap to achieve this target.

This may include coercive measures against terrorist networks inside the country and beyond its borders. There should be zero tolerance for extremist groups in Punjab and Sindh, which demoralise societal potential by triggering faith-based hatred. A broader dialogue in Balochistan and reconsidering governance and administrative approaches for Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan are also necessary.

In sum, Pakistan needs a plan to reverse the social engineering implemented by power elites over the past several decades. If this happens, Pakistan can develop healthier, more respectful relationships with the world, and its citizens will not face travel embargoes and interact with the global community as normal citizens.

It could be termed as a new social contract or a peace accord, focusing on the collective efforts required to conceive a peaceful Pakistan, regardless of the cost. Importantly, these efforts may not be as costly as they seem, requiring a shift in perspective.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2025