• Loyalties of Nawaz supporters in prosperous central Punjab districts being tested as Imran-backed candidates ride ‘sympathy
• Loyalties of Nawaz supporters in prosperous central Punjab districts being tested as Imran-backed candidates ride ‘sympathy wave’
• PML-N decision to reward ‘turncoats’ disillusions voters; PTI promises ‘surprise’ despite ‘use of lethal force’ to dampen electioneering
DHESIAN is one of the most populous villages of Jaranwala. Some 35km from Faisalabad, the area has always stood by Nawaz Sharif, voting en bloc for his candidates in every election in the past.
In return, its inhabitants have been adequately rewarded by successive PML-N governments with paved streets, power, gas and the internet.
However, there are signs for some time that the village is shifting its loyalties ahead of the upcoming elections.
It might still vote overwhelmingly for the N-League on February 8, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see their arch-rivals, the PTI, take away a substantial chunk of the polled ballots.
The region has been the epitome of Nawaz’s unchallenged reign over central Punjab until now, owing to the party’s biradari-based and trader-financed local networks, held together by development schemes under multiple rules in the province.
Several factors — a rapid demographic change, a steep increase in the cost of living under Shehbaz Sharif, PTI’s anti-establishment narrative, and social media — have spurred Imran Khan’s popularity since his government’s removal in April 2022. These factors are also influencing PML-N’s standing in Dhesian. Even then, the political dynamics of this Jaranwala constituency can not be ignored.
‘Turncoats not welcome’
For starters, ‘N’ voters are not happy that the party leadership has preferred a quintessential turncoat, Nawab Sher Waseer, who was one of the first PTI legislators to desert his party to support the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in 2022, over party loyalist Talal Chaudhry for the NA constituency from Jaranwala. The political journey of the Nawab can be traced back to the Jamaat-i-Islami, the PPP, PML-Q and the PTI.
Then there is Rai Haider Ali Khan, whose family had remained loyal to the PML-N for decades; he too quit the former ruling party in February to join the PTI.
Imran Khan’s growing popularity wasn’t the only factor that led Rai Haider to desert his former political party: the Sharifs’ decision to embrace Nawab Waseer meant that his space in Jaranwala’s electoral politics would be limited. And what could be a better option than a PTI ticket against a traditional adversary?
With an established standing in the constituency from where he was twice elected to the Punjab Assembly in 2013 and 2018, he is better placed than any other candidate to put a dent in the vote bank of the PML-N. And he has been successful in that endeavour even before starting his election campaign.
Due to its popularity across central Punjab, the PML-N has also earned the label of ‘G.T. Road Party’. After it was decimated by PML-Q, formed by military dictator Pervez Musharraf, in 2002, the N-League bounced back in 2008, winning 41 out of 80 NA seats in these districts, despite the fact that the Sharif family had just returned from exile and Benazir had just been murdered
‘Unfading popularity’
“The objective of Imran Khan’s rivals is to comprehensively defeat his PTI in the polls with the help of the establishment. However, they’re underestimating his popularity. They cannot win just by dismissing his unfading popularity.”
Most people in Jaranwala believe that Rai Haider will win the constituency hands down. Those who prefer to tamper their optimism with a tinge of doubt will tell you that the Jaranwala contest is going to be a very competitive one; however, even they believe the PTI ticket holders will prevail.
“The contest for Jaranwala’s one NA seat (NA-96), and two Punjab Assembly (PP-100 and PP-101) constituencies will be competitive. The battle could have been a bit difficult for the PTI if Talal were contesting on the PML-N ticket,” says a local journalist in a comment on Nawab Waseer’s nomination.
The PML-N, meanwhile is faced with a potential revolt from “aspiring candidates” over ticket distribution in many places across central Punjab. As a result, they are in the running as independent contestants, or lending their support to the PTI.
On one of the provincial seats, the Sharifs have fielded Talal’s 77-year-old father, Chaudhry Ashraf, against his brother Chaudhry Akram, an old parliamentarian who claims to have brought his nephew into electoral politics, to ensure that Talal Chaudhry actively participates in the election effort for Nawab Waseer’s win.
Nothing is inevitable
The Sharif family and its loyalists may be expecting an easy victory in their central Punjab bastion, but there is nothing ‘inevitable’ about their chances of reclaiming the dominant position in the region.
The majority of the electoral races in the four central Punjab divisions — Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Lahore and Sahiwal — would be highly competitive, even with Imran Khan still in jail, his party without an electoral symbol and most candidates underground.
“The 2024 polls would not be a walk in the park for Nawaz whose politics has suffered a remarkable decline over the recent years… Most central Punjab electoral races are going to be very competitive despite all odds stacked against the PTI,” a Faisalabad-based journalist argues.
“PML-N’s route in the provincial and national by-elections in 2022 in its stronghold of central Punjab, is a major sign of Imran Khan’s popularity after his ouster from power.”
‘G.T. Road Party’
Due to its popularity across central Punjab, the PML-N also earned the label of ‘G.T. Road Party’. After it was decimated by PML-Q, formed by military dictator Pervez Musharraf, in 2002, the N-League bounced back in 2008, winning 41 out of 80 NA seats in these districts.
This was despite the fact that the Sharif family had just returned from exile and the murder of Benazir Bhutto had sparked a countrywide wave of sympathy for the PPP. The remaining seats were shared by the PPP, PML-Q, independent candidates, and other smaller parties.
Jaranwala is not the only place in the 17 central districts of Punjab where the N-League suffered a big dent in the last elections.
In Punjab’s central districts, the party’s tally dropped from 72 out of the 79 contested National Assembly seats in 2013 to 45 out of 71 seats in 2018. In other words, its share of NA seats declined from above 91pc to 63pc in five years.
PTI fields ‘rookies’ against ‘lethal force’
A similar dilemma is being faced by PTI. Will it succeed in retaining 22 national seats it had won in 2018, let alone build up on this tally next month?
The party roster now mostly features rookies, many lacking financial muscle and influence in their constituencies. In addition, a number of PTI ticket holders are contesting from jail and some are outside the country. In certain places, the delayed finalisation of tickets and multiple changes to candidate names are also creating as much confusion for the PTI’s campaign as different symbols for each candidate have caused.
“We are a party interrupted with lethal force,” says a PTI provincial leader from Jhang. “We have everything going against us. Nawaz’s return amid a growing public perception that the country’s security establishment and courts are clearing the field for PML-N might also sway fringe voters.”
Still, PTI has some strong factors favouring its ticket holders: popular anti-establishment and ‘anti-America’ narrative, young voters in both urban and rural areas, poor economic management under Shehbaz, massive public sympathy for their incarcerated leader, and so on.
“Interestingly, Bilawal Bhutto is also perpetuating our narrative against PML-N, reminding the voters of how Nawaz is trying to return to power with the help of the establishment. It will benefit us. He is doing that to woo our voters but that is not going to happen. If our supporters are not stopped from voting, the PTI will give a major surprise to the PML-N.”
‘Leaving nothing to chance’
In spite of a “clear field”, PML-N ticket holders aren’t leaving their campaigns to chance. Some are working hard to connect with the voters despite being “the only party in the arena”.
“Politics is all about narratives and public perception and the PTI narrative of sympathy and the PDM government’s poor economic legacy is swaying voters. Our past performance (narrative of development) is not resonating with the public. We are forced to contest this election like local body polls to fight the popular wave,” concedes Talal Chaudhry.
Yet, he defends the party’s decision to remove the PTI government. “If we hadn’t voted Imran out, we would have been finished as a [political] party. That was a difficult choice to make. At least we are in the election race and talking to you freely,” notes the PML-N leader, who has been promised a Senate seat and a ministry in the “next PML-N set-up”.
While PTI may be down, it is not out. Despite difficulties, PTI remains a strong political contender for votes across Central Punjab. But we do not know if it can convert its leader’s popularity into votes on the polling day. If it does, PML-N might find it hard to regain its dominance in central Punjab.
Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2024
DESPITE the lack of the traditional ‘electric atmosphere’ ahead of elections, the stage is set for a number of exciting electoral battles in central Punjab.
In NA-71 (Sialkot-II), old rivals former defence minister Khawaja Asif and PTI nominee Rehana Imtiaz Dar — mother of Usman and Umar Dar — will face off. In 2018, Usman Dar lost to Khawaja Asif by a margin of a few thousand votes.
He was later appointed as the chairman of PM Imran’s youth programme during the PTI government.
Rehana Dar alleged that after the May 9 riots,her sons were kidnapped and tortured at the behest of the PML-N leader, which was the reason she decided to take on the former minister.
Khawaja Asif faces PTI’s Rehana Dar in Sialkot; Shujaat’s son backed by PML-N against Elahi’s wife in Gujrat; Narowal’s Ahsan Iqbal faces rebellion from Daniyal Aziz
The second contest in Sialkot that is drawing public attention is in NA-70 (Sialkot-I) between IPP nominee Firdaus Ashiq Awan and former PML-N MNA Armaghan Subhani of the ‘Variyo family’.
Ms Awan had tried her best to seek a seat adjustment with the ‘N-League’, but she was not obliged.
Rifts in Narowal
In adjacent Narowal’s, NA-76 (Narowal-II), former planning minister and PML-N General Secretary Ahsan Iqbal is facing PTI’s retired Col Javed Kahloon, a former district nazim, in another closely watched contest.
Col Kahlon’s wife Riffat Javed had defeated Ahsan Iqbal in the 2002 polls from the PML-Q platform. The PPP, meanwhile, has fielded a candidate from the Christian community, Sakhawat Masih.
Disgruntled PML-N leader Daniyal Aziz is also campaigning against Mr Iqbal after being denied a party ticket for his ‘favourite man’ in a provincial constituency falling under NA-76.
Mr Aziz is running for NA-75 as an independent after he too was denied a ticket, apparently because he had publicly criticised Mr Iqbal for damaging the national economy during his stint as the planning minister.
Ahsan Iqbal, on the other hand, claimed that Mr Aziz had not formally applied for the PML-N ticket, as he was “hoping to get one from the PTI”.
‘Disintegration in Gujrat’
Gujrat district is witnessing the disintegration of an old family, the Chaudhrys. This rift started after the ouster of Imran Khan in the vote of no-confidence in April 2022, and has only continued to expand.
Qaisera Elahi, the wife of former chief minister Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, with the backing of the PTI, is facing her nephew and PML-Q candidate Chaudhry Salik Hussain in NA-64 (Gujrat-III). Salik is the son of PML-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain.
PTI President Parvez Elahi, now in jail, had won the last two elections from NA-64. However, he has never lost a provincial assembly seat from this constituency since 1985. In those days, the family was united. Now, Chaudhry Salik is being facilitated by the PML-N, which has not fielded any candidate against him in an undeclared seat adjustment.
All-important Faisalabad
There are three electoral contests to watch in the Faisalabad district – NA-95, NA-100, and NA-102. In NA-95 (Faisalabad-I), PTI’s Ali Afzal Sahi, son of former Punjab Assembly speaker Afzal Sahi and son-in-law of the LHC chief justice, is facing former PML-N MPA Azad Ali Tabassam and PPP’s Usman Anwar.
Mr Sahi had won a provincial assembly seat in the 2022 by-polls when the PML-N was on a winning streak. But neither Maryam nor Hamza or even Shehbaz Sharif held any public meetings there to mobilise party supporters, for reasons unknown.
In the all-important NA-100 (Faisalabad-VI), former interior minister Rana Sanaullah is in the running against Dr Nisar Jutt of the PTI, while the PPP has fielded Sidra Saeed, a sister of Ilyas Jutt. The constituency is a hub of power looms located in the periphery of urban areas.
Dr Nisar had won from here twice; in 2002 as a PPP candidate and in 2013 as the PML-N nominee. In 2018, he joined the PTI but lost to Rana Sana, who is likely to benefit from differences in the Jutt clan, two of whose members are contesting for the same seat.
In NA-102 (Faisalabad-VIII), the PML-N has pitched Abid Sher Ali denying a ticket to Talal Chaudhry, who has been promised a Senate seat instead, while his father has been awarded a ticket for a Punjab Assembly constituency.
Yaqoob Rasam Mughal, an independent candidate, is campaigning here as the PTI nominee, whereas former PTI minister Farrukh Habib is also in the field. The PPP, meanwhile, has fielded Rana Naeem Dastgir, city chapter president of the party.
Jhang’s Makhdoom on PML-N ticket
In Jhang’s NA-108, Makhdoom Faisal Saleh Hayat has bagged a PML-N ticket and is contesting against former PTI MNA Sahibzada Mehboob Sultan, hailing from the family of the well-known Sufi, Sultan Bahu.
Interior minister during the Musharraf regime, Faisal Saleh Hayat had returned to the National Assembly in 1977, 1988, 1990, 1993 and 2002 as a PPP candidate and in 2008 as PML-Q nominee. In most of the contests, his rival was his own cousin, Begum Abida Hussain.
In 2013, his papers were rejected over stealing irrigation water and in the 2018 polls, he lost to Sahibzada by just 589 votes. He recently joined the PML-N only a few weeks ago.
Ex-spymaster eyes Nankana seat
In NA-112 (Nankana-II), the PTI pitched former spy chief Ijaz Shah against PML-N’s Shezra Mansab Ali Kharal.
Mr Shah, the Intelligence Bureau chief during the Musharraf regime, who had been accused of victimising the opposition members, contested for the seat in the 2013 general election as an independent candidate but remained unsuccessful. His second bid to claim the constituency in 2015 by-polls was foiled by Ms Kharal. However, he won the seat in the 2018 polls on a PTI ticket.
Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2024
Amid muted election atmosphere, unpopular seat adjustments and rampant inflation might put a dampener on PML-N’s otherwise ‘bright prospects’
AFTER more than four years in self-imposed exile, PML-N supreme leader Nawaz Sharif — once a ‘ladla’ of Lahore — has returned to a completely changed city, which is apparently not ready to embrace him with the same openness and warmth it has shown him in the past, at least for now.
Lahore had been a Sharif stronghold for decades before cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s PTI posed a real challenge in the 2018 elections, claiming four out of 14 National Assembly seats in the provincial capital.
This time, hyperinflation during the brief reign of his brother Shehbaz has dented the popularity of the PML-N significantly.
Not only is the PML-N struggling to draw out impressive crowds in its election rallies, the elder Sharif didn’t fully participate in the campaign rally in NA-130, leaving without making a speech. Meanwhile, party leaders including former chief minister Hamza Shehbaz, have been ‘greeted’ with heckling and barbs in multiple constituencies in the provincial capital.
Whether Lahore remains a PML-N stronghold on Feb 8, only time will tell.
Before these elections, the PML-N had always managed to grab the lion’s share of NA seats here going back to the 1990s. Even in the 2013 and 2018 polls, it was the biggest political party in the city.
Now, following a clampdown on the PTI and its candidates’ electioneering, it chances still seem bright. But it is this unspoken ban on other parties’ rallies that has killed the election vibe for Lahoris.
Even amid the dull political climate, there are still some interesting contests: the elder Sharif will be |
facing a ‘real challenge’ from imprisoned PTI leader, Dr Yasmin Rashid. His NA-130, which comprises areas of the old city, has not seen much activity since one of the contenders is in jail and the other is out on the election trail.
‘Sharifs in the field’
Interestingly, all four members of the Sharif family are in the running for election from Lahore and at least two of their opponents – both women – are currently behind bars.
Like his elder brother, Shehbaz also paid a maiden visit to his NA-123 constituency to make lofty promises to the citizens of Lahore, in return for votes. His constituency includes impoverished areas like Gajjumata, Kahan, Suay Aasal and New Kahna. His PTI-backed challenger is a rookie, advocate Afzal Azeem Pahat, who is allegedly being restrained from running his campaign by police.
In her NA-119, Maryam Nawaz is contesting against PTI-backed Farooq Shahzad after the party’s social media activist Sanam Javed decided to opt out of the race. Ms Nawaz is also contesting a provincial assembly seat.
Hamza Shehbaz, whose NA-118 borders his uncle Nawaz’s constituency, has held several political gatherings in the area. His rival is PTI’s Aliya Hamza, who is imprisoned at Kot Lakhpat jail in connection with May 9 cases. Her party supporters are active in the constituency and on social media seeking votes for her.
In NA-122, which comprises Walton, DHA, and Cantt among other areas, PML-N veteran Khawaja Saad Rafique is engaged in a hectic campaign against PTI-backed nominee Latif Khosa, a former PPP stalwart who is part of Imran Khan’s legal team. Mr Rafique lost this seat to Imran Khan in 2018, but later reclaimed it in by-polls after the PTI leader vacated it.
Seat adjustments
This time, the Sharifs have to share their seats in Lahore with their ‘ally’, the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) of Jahangir Khan Tareen. The PML-N has doled out two NA and one Punjab Assembly seats to IPP candidates in Lahore.
IPP leader Aleem Khan will contest polls from NA-117, where he will face PTI lawyer Ali Ijaz Buttar, while his colleague Awn Chaudhry will contest from NA-128 against senior lawyer Salman Akram Raja, who is also representing Imran Khan in multiple cases. Due to the decision to support the IPP men, PML-N supporters in these two constituencies are not interested in supporting ‘outsiders’, making the top leadership nervous about the outcome here.
These elections may also provide the Sharifs an opportunity to face their old friend-turned-rival, former Punjab governor Mian Azhar, who was briefly detained by police before his election rally a couple of weeks ago. Mian Azhar parted ways with the PML-N alongside Chaudhrys of Gujrat following the Musharraf coup in 1999.
The 82-year-old Mian Azhar was fielded by Imran Khan in place of his son Hammad Azhar, who is absconding in multiple cases. Mian Azhar will be against PML-N’s Hafiz Nauman, who is considered close to Maryam Nawaz, for NA-129.
PPP eyes seat for chief
Besides the PML-N and the embattled PTI, the PPP is also active in the provincial capital, with its chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari trying to hark back to their glory days. In the 1980s and 1990s, the PPP performed exceptionally well in polls, but the 2013 and 2018 elections wiped out the party from the heartland of Punjab.
PPP veterans blame Asif Ali Zardari for their erosion from Punjab, saying the “friendly politics” between the party and the Nawaz league disillusioned its supporters, who turned to PTI instead. Many jiyalas still consider the PML-N “remnants of Zia”.
Mr Bhutto-Zardari is contesting elections from NA-127, which includes areas such as Township, Green Town, and Kot Lakhpat. This constituency also has a sizeable Christian population.
As Mr Bhutto-Zardari and PML-N’s Attaullah Tarar splurge on their election campaign, PTI-affiliated Zahir Abbas Khokhar has struggled to launch his election campaign.
Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2024
Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2024
The Nawaz league has embraced ‘electables’ Faisal Saleh Hayat and Asif Moavia, while PTI is backing Sheikh Waqqas Akram
A COMBINATION of clout, trade and industry and spiritual influence tempered with sectarian divisions — these are the influences that largely define the electoral politics of Jhang.
Between all these, political parties try to carve out space for themselves by roping in the so-called electables — landlords, pirs, wealthy traders and even known zealots — to shore up their electoral chances.
According to veteran politician Faisal Saleh Hayat, parties don’t matter that much in Jhang.
“Parties win or lose elections here on the strength of what you call electables and their local networks. Political parties do exist, but only on the margins,” he tells me as a crowd of local villagers, biradari elders and political hangers-on from his constituency await an audience with him before he leaves the Makhdoom House in Shah Jeewana for a door-to-door election campaign.
“The ground realities in the constituency are far removed from our elitist, western concepts of democracy,” he scoffs.
No wonder then, that the PML-N — which had lost all three National Assembly seats from the district to the PTI in 2018 and was unable to find any strong candidate from within the party for the 2024 polls — has recently embraced Mr Hayat, the custodian of the shrine of Shah Jeewana and Mohammad Asif Moavia, a religious leader known for his extreme views, anti-Shia rhetoric and links with the banned Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), to shore up its electoral chances on February 8.
An influential landlord, pir and industrialist all rolled into one, Faisal Saleh Hayat has won the rural Shah Jeewana constituency six times since 1977. Moavia, meanwhile, has a significantly large sectarian vote-bank in Shorkot. Both of them, then were the ideal choice for the Nawaz League in its quest for electables to retake the district.
Though less savoury than Saleh Hayat’s inclusion, but Moavia’s induction into the PML-N didn’t surprise anyone as the party had always maintained a close link with the successive incarnations of the outlawed SSP, originally founded as the Anjuman Sipah-i-Sahaba (ASS) by its slain leader Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi in 1985, with alleged financial support from a Gulf country, as a militant anti-Shia outfit.
Both Saleh Hayat and Moavia are believed to have significantly improved the PML-N’s chances in the electoral races in the district. Hayat had lost the previous election on a PPP ticket to PTI’s Sahibzada Mehboob Sultan, another pir linked with Sultan Bahu’s shrine in Garth Maharaja, with a tiny margin of less than 600 votes. Both are now set for another showdown next week, with the PTI backing Mehboob Sultan.
Likewise, Moavia, who claims to have renounced anti-Shia militancy and the SSP, had polled more than 71,200 votes in 2018, significantly improving on his 2013 tally of 37,794 votes, but still lost to PTI’s Ameer Sultan, who bagged nearly 91,100 votes, in 2018. Both are again in contention for the same seat.
The third Jhang (city) seat NA-109 (previously NA-115) is being contested by Maulana Ahmed Ludhianvi, the chief of Rah-e-Haq, the latest incarnation of the SSP. Jhangvi’s son, Masroor Nawaz, whose victory in a 2016 by-poll for a provincial assembly seat from Jhang city had shocked the country, is again in the run for the same seat under Ludhianvi, but as an independent candidate.
There are credible reports that Ludhianvi and Masroor had allegedly conspired to get Azam Tariq’s papers rejected on allegations of his link with the SSP. Moavia, whose father Azam Tariq led the SSP after Jhangvi’s murder and was elected as member of the 2002 National Assembly, is believed to have his differences with Ludhianvi. Azam Tariq was elected to the Punjab Assembly in 2018 and had filed nomination papers against Ludhianvi from the Jhang city constituency.
Ludhianvi, whose participation in the last elections was ensured after his name was removed from the terror watch list — just like Masroor’s name was taken out of the Fourth Schedule list after his election — finds himself pitted against Sheikh Waqqas Akram, who is being backed by the PTI.
Both Ludhianvi and Akram have a strong vote-bank in the constituency. The former was a runner up with nearly 69,000 votes against PTI’s Ghulam Bibi Bharwana in 2018 and had polled over 72,000 votes against the PML-N’s Sheikh Mohammad Akram, Waqqas’ father, in 2013.
Waqqas had obtained close to 60,800 votes in the 2018 elections. This time, the PML-N has fielded Sheikh Yaqoob, who is thought to be a weaker candidate as compared to Ludhianvi and Waqas.
The SSP has successfully managed to build a strong vote-bank in Jhang, which had been a hotbed of anti-Shia sectarian violence since the mid 1980s to until a few years back, taking advantage of a rapid rise of small traders and shop owners and influx of industrial labour to the urban areas of Jhang.
The SSP leadership has been contesting elections from the city since 1988 when Haq Nawaz lost to Begum Abida Hussain.
Azam Tariq won the national constituency twice: 1993 and 2002. In 1993, the SSP also won two Punjab Assembly seats and one of its members was appointed as adviser to the chief minister for supporting Manzoor Wattoo’s minority coalition government in the province. The new incarnation of the SSP has also developed pockets of electoral support across Punjab and its local organisations had supported PML-N candidates in 2013 across the province.
How Jhang will vote and who will wear its crown next week depends on the ability of the PTI to mobilise its support in the district on polling day. Until then, the PML-N and Rah-e-Haq seem to be leading the race.
