With a deep depression situated approximately 200 kilometres from Karachi on Friday, Pakistan’s coastal areas are bracing for a potential cyclonic storm expected over the northeast Arabian Sea along Sindh’s coast.
According to an alert from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued at 10am today, a deep depression (a very strong low-pressure area) over India’s Rann of Kutch has slowly moved west-southwestward during the last 12 hours and now lies around 200 kilometres east/southeast of Karachi.
Stating that the system was “likely to keep moving further west/southwestwards in the northeast Arabian Sea along the Sindh coast”, the PMD predicted it was likely to “intensify further into a cyclonic
storm this afternoon/evening”.
The deep depression would then keep moving west-southwestward, Chief Meteorologist Dr Sardar Sarfaraz said.
It would move west towards Oman parallel to the Pakistan coast but can produce torrential rains in southern districts, including Karachi and along the Makran coast.
The alert pointed out there were favourable environmental conditions for the depression to develop into a cyclonic storm — sea surface temperature (28-
29°C, low/moderate vertical wind shear and good upper-level outflow).
Met officials have described the formation of a cyclone in the monsoon season as a “rare phenomenon”.
“There is an 80 per cent chance for a cyclonic storm’s formation when the deep depression would move from land to the sea and get favourable conditions. “It would be a rare event as cyclones are uncommon in the monsoon season,” Dr Sarfaraz said earlier.
He said if the storm materialised it would be the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976 and would get the name ‘Asna’ suggested by Pakistan. He added that regional cyclones were assigned names according to a list prepared by a 13-country panel, including Pakistan.
India’s weather office said that the deep depression would move northwest over the Arabian Sea in the next two days.
The formation of a cyclonic storm over the Arabian Sea in August was a rare occurrence, the Indian Express newspaper reported, saying the last such storm was in 1964.
Heavy rains expected in next 3 days
Under the weather system’s influence, the PMD has predicted widespread heavy rains in several districts of Sindh as well as those along the Balochistan coast.
“Widespread rain/wind-thunderstorms with scattered heavy/very heavy and isolated extremely heavy falls” are likely till August 31 in the Karachi division as well as Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Jamshoro, Dadu and Shaheed Benazirabad districts.
About the Balochistan coastline, the PMD predicted “widespread rain/wind-thunderstorm with scattered heavy/very heavy falls” in Hub, Lasbella,
Awaran, Kech, and Gwadar districts from August 30 to September 1, with occasional gaps.
“Heavy rains may create water logging/rain inundation in low-lying areas of Sindh-Makran coast,” the Met Office warned.
It further said sea conditions were likely to remain rough/very rough with squally winds of 50-60km/hour gusting at 70km/hour.
The PMD advised fishermen in Sindh not to venture into the sea till August 31 and those in Balochistan till September 1.
School shuts amid heavy rains
Meanwhile, schools in Karachi and Hyderabad were closed today as authorities responded to heavy rains and stormy winds.
According to a notification dated August 29, Hyderabad Deputy Commissioner Zainul Abedin Memon announced the closure of all public and private schools across the district for today.
Memon, also the chief of the district’s disaster management authority, said the decision was made in view of the “ensuing heavy monsoon rains” and the relevant alerts issued by the PMD.
Parts of Karachi received 147 millimetres of rain overnight, the local weather office said, and the city’s mayor, Murtaza Wahab, in a post on X, urged residents to avoid “unnecessary movement”.
Authorities have warned that the storm is likely to result in flooding in cities as well as flash floods in hilly areas in the coming days.
A ban on “fishermen venturing into the sea, as well as on swimming, bathing, diving, and wading in the sea/beaches and coastal areas” of Karachi Division had been imposed from Aug 29 till Aug 31 (Saturday).
In India, more than 28 people died and around 18,000 have been evacuated since Sunday from cities near India’s Gujarat coast, disaster management authorities said on Thursday, with more rain expected.
