Student demonstrations turned mass protests in Bangladesh overthrew an iron-fisted government, but the new caretaker government yet to be formed will face a greater challenge ahead, analysts warn.
Muhammad Yunus, an 84-year-old Nobel-winning microfinance pioneer, will lead an interim government after prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled Monday and the army chief took control.
The military played a decisive role in Hasina’s ouster, but it will also play a decisive — if uncertain — role in shepherding the future of the long-troubled South Asian nation.
Here are five key issues the new administration will have to tackle.
The interim government is set to be civilian-led, but what control the army may also exercise is unclear.
“The military leadership will have a major role in overseeing this interim setup, even if it’s not formally heading it,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center.
While euphoric crowds celebrated victory as Hasina was toppled after weeks of protests — started by students demonstrating against civil service job quotas — it was the military who made the game-changing move.
It was their decision not to join police and other security forces in suppressing protests with deadly force, ending their once rock-solid loyalty to the premier, that brought her downfall.
“Many in Bangladesh will worry that if you have a long-term interim government, that gives the military more of an opportunity to gain a foothold,” Kugelman added.
“Though, I would argue that Bangladesh’s army today appears much less inclined to play an activist and central role in politics, compared to how it used to be several decades back.”
More than 400 people were killed during weeks of clashes between protesters and security forces.
Since Hasina fled, police reported mobs launching revenge attacks on her allies.
Rights groups and diplomats in Bangladesh have raised concerns over reports of attacks on minorities including Hindus, seen by some in the Muslim-majority nation as steadfast supporters of Hasina’s Awami League party.
“The first order of business for any interim government should be to ensure protection of people’s right to life, right to free speech and peaceful assembly, and to find ways of de-escalating any potential for further violence”, said Smriti Singh of Amnesty International.
Political scientist Ali Riaz of Illinois State University said he believed that if security forces back a government with “demonstrated neutrality” the situation would be “likely to calm down”.
Police unions said their members had gone on strike Tuesday “until the security” of officers was assured.
Bangladesh has recorded average annual growth of more than six percent since 2009 and overtook India in per capita income terms in 2021.
But the dividends of economic growth have been shared unequally, with government data in 2022 showing that 18 million Bangladeshis aged 15 to 24 were out of work.
The unrest has also shaken the garment industry, with factories shuttered during the worst of the violence.
Bangladesh’s 3,500 garment factories account for around 85 percent of its $55 billion in annual exports.
Supplying many of the world’s top brands, including Levi’s, Zara and H&M, Bangladesh is the world’s second biggest exporter of clothing by value after China.
Clothing manufacturer Hula Global, supplying major US stores, said it had already shifted some production.
“We have stopped all new orders going to Bangladesh for the rest of the year,” company head Karan Bose said.
Hasina won her fifth term in January in widely discredited polls without a credible opposition.
“Part of the reason the protest movement gained such widespread support was the fact the country has not held a competitive election in 15 years,” said International Crisis Group analyst Thomas Kean.
“The interim government… needs to embark on the long task of rebuilding democracy in Bangladesh, which has been so badly eroded in recent years.”
With the caretaker government yet to be formed, there are no details of how long it might be in power, when elections might be held and who might contest.
“The opposition is weak and divided,” added Kugelman.
Security in Bangladesh lies in the hands of the same army and police who failed to crush the protests.
Since Hasina fell, the police chief and a top general have been sacked. Those arrested during protests, as well as some incarcerated political prisoners, have begun to be released.
“Hopefully we can turn a page with this new transition government and begin on a new footing… one built on trust and holding people to account,” UN country chief Gwyn Lewis said.
Many protesters will demand Hasina — currently in India — and her allies face justice.
Crisis Group’s Kean said the new authorities “should carry out a credible investigation into the tragic events of recent weeks”.
