Following a seven-year hiatus, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran recently decided to re-establish diplomatic relations with the help of China. Both countries have expressed their appreciation and gratitude to Iraq, Oman, and China for their good contributions to the discussions’ facilitation, hosting, and sponsorship. The restoration of diplomatic ties is a great development, but key differences between the two states, which are polarised by religion, geopolitics, and geostrategic interests, are unlikely to be overcome.
Introduction
Saudi Arabia and Iran acknowledged China’s role in mediating the diplomatic breakthrough in a joint statement issued on March 10th, stating, “The three countries announce that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, that includes an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months, and the agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states.”
Given the depth of Saudi-Iran hostility, as well as the wider politico-strategic atmosphere of the region and the Muslim world, rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a welcome development. Furthermore, China’s mediation efforts, given its growing global importance in a world moving towards multipolarity, imply a potential reordering of global diplomatic dynamics.
A Snapshot of the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
For decades, Iran and Saudi Arabia have had a violent rivalry marked by political, religious, and economic difficulties, as well as competing regional influence and geopolitical goals. Although the two nations have been involved in proxy warfare in various parts of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s murder of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in 2016 marked a particularly low moment in Iran and Saudi Arabia’s already strained ties.
The Saudi-Iran rivalry has stretched far beyond the Middle East, building a profound and bitter sectarian fault line throughout the Muslim world. For example, Pakistan has suffered greatly as a result of the aforementioned archrivals’ protracted battle for religious legitimacy and ideological dominance in the Muslim world.
The proliferation of Saudi-backed madrassahs following the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan can be blamed for the dual problems of puritanical fanaticism and religious persecution of Pakistan’s Shia minority. The anti-Shiite rallies by Sunni hardliners and their sympathisers that enveloped Karachi in September 2020 were a particularly painful occurrence that highlighted the degree of this rot in Pakistani society and is still fresh in public memory.
“The Saudi-Iran rivalry went beyond geopolitics, descending into an ever-greater competition for Islamic legitimacy through religious and cultural domination, changing societies from within—not only in Saudi Arabia and Iran, but throughout the region,” writes Kim Ghattas in “Black Wave.”
From Conflict to Reconciliation
After the Saudi authorities executed Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Shia cleric and vocal critic of the Saudi government, angry Iranian protestors stormed the Kingdom’s embassy in Tehran in 2016. The images of smoke blazing from the Saudi embassy, with fire engines and police in riot gear stationed outside and the diplomatic enclave barred, exemplified the outpouring of rage felt by many Iranians in the aftermath of the execution.
In return, Saudi Arabia declared the termination of diplomatic relations with Iran, effectively ending any possibility of reconciliation. The Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, described the Saudi government’s outrage at the storming of its diplomatic mission in Iran, saying, “These ongoing aggressions against diplomatic missions are a violation of all agreements and international conventions.”
So, what has changed between then and now? The global politico-strategic climate in 2016 was dramatically different from now. Iran had secured the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) accord the previous year, and with the progressive relaxation of sanctions, the chances for the Iranian economy’s regeneration were promising.
Although Washington had reservations about the Kingdom’s involvement in the Yemeni civil war and its human rights record, the bilateral relationship between the two countries remained strong, and it only improved with Donald Trump’s election to the White House. Mr. Trump’s first foreign trip was to Saudi Arabia.
According to Bruce Riedel, director of Brookings’ Intelligence Project, China’s growing diplomatic footprint, which follows on the heels of economic investment in other countries and a shared progress narrative, is also a strong sign of China’s global aspirations. In the context of Saudi-Iran relations, this means that China stands to benefit more from the formation of robust diplomatic ties between the two Gulf governments.
Previously, China got into a $400 billion partnership with Iran, and China receives more than 25% of Saudi oil imports. Furthermore, the arrangement has increased the People’s Republic of China’s diplomatic clout in the troubled Middle Eastern region.
Conclusion
While not a panacea, the recent diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a significant step towards decreasing tensions and promoting stability in the Middle East. Finally, the Middle East’s route to long-term peace and prosperity will necessitate patience, persistence, and a commitment to constructive engagement. To that end, China’s growing importance and involvement signal a shift in the ethos of global diplomacy; a welcome departure from the mentality typified by the US’s neo-imperialism and adventurism.
