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Fallout – Newspaper – DAWN.COM

THOSE gasps, splutters and screams you’re hearing are the sounds of the old dying and the new being born right in front of our eyes, thanks to the ungentle midwifery of His Orange Eminence Donald Trump, the acquisitive emperor of sub-Canadian America.

The labour pains are intense and the contractions are increasing in frequency, but be assured that this particular delivery was long overdue and that Trump is simply one of those figures that history tends to throw up when one era nears its end; figures that will hasten the process and shape the contours of the new world, whether they know it or not.

By effectively taking a red, white and blue sledgehammer to the post-World War II European order that the US had itself crafted to the advantage of itself and its continental allies, Trump has set in motion forces that could lead to some very interesting results in the months, years and decades to come. And while predicting the future is a tricky (and potentially embarrassing) business at the best of times, there are some first and second order effects that bear discussion.

For one thing it seems the old Gaullist dream of a strategically autonomous Europe free of American dominance with France in the driver’s seat has come a step closer to reality. Emmanuel Macron, sensing this, is trying to step up to play that role. France’s insistence (even within the Western alliance) on developing its own nuclear deterrent and maintaining its own wide-ranging global intelligence apparatus with very little reliance on US intelligence gathering, has proved far-sighted.

Turkey is also seeing an opportunity, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ever the master of the moment, offering Turkey as an indispensable partner in any future Europe-led security dispensation. It makes sense, given that Europe certainly needs Ankara’s growing military and geopolitical clout and may now not treat its membership requests with the arrogance of the past. Or not. Because Europe’s imperial delusions and colonial biases persist, at least so long as they’re still sipping on the heady brew of solidarity and nationalism that Trump has inadvertently forced them to imbibe.

Trump is among those thrown up by history when an era is ending.

But the hangover will come: as Europe shifts from a welfare state to a warfare state, citizens will feel the pinch. This is a Europe in which many countries (especially Germany) are already feeling the shock of the cut-off of Russian gas, leading to higher energy prices for which there was a political price to pay. That price will become steeper; given that the money for massive rearmament will certainly come from already stretched social services, in the short- and mid-term this likely translates to an increasingly irate citizenry which, even if it agrees with the principle of a militarily powerful Europe standing up to Russia or whomever, may be loath to foot the bill in perpetuity.

This means a potential political windfall for the broader European opposition which happens, by and large, to be far right or, to put it less politely, neo-Nazis, crypto-Nazis and out-and-out unapologetic Nazis, with a sprinkling of less popular far-left groups.

This leads to an interesting scenario in which, at some point in the future, these extremist parties are in power in European countries that now possess burgeoning militaries and perhaps also are nuclear-armed! And while we should all push for European de-radicalisation (I can smell some lucrative consultancy gigs there), we should also know that another effect of Trump’s actions will be a larger global push towards nuclear weapons. Poland’s premier has already indicated his desire to obtain a nuclear deterrent. It makes sense, given that it is evident that treaties and guarantees and ‘sovereign borders’ are meaningless in the face of the logic of power. The only territory you have a right to in this new world is what you can physically hold on to.

Speaking of weapons, Trump’s actions aren’t good news for the US ‘defence’ industry. ‘Why would anyone buy US weapons when they can be switched off if the president doesn’t like the cut of your clothes?’ is a common refrain these days, and it’s cute to see Europeans finally realising that US ‘assistance’ doesn’t come with just strings attached, but steel cables.

So it’s ironic that Ukraine, which should have served as a giant ongoing ad campaign for American weapons systems, is, in fact, a giant warning sign to all countries to never ever rely on American arms, or American aims.

One theory is that Trump is trying to peel Russia away from its Chinese alliance, and while anything is possible, it seems unlikely that Russia — fully mindful of the mercurial nature of US policies — will take the bait. As for China, one would do well to remember that while Trump may have written the Art of the Deal, it was China that wrote the Art of War.

The writer is a journalist.

X: *@zarrarkhuhro*