Pakistan projected to become third most populous country by 2050

Pakistan’s fertility rate has dropped from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 in 2024, according to the United Nations World Fertility Report 2024.

Despite this decline, the country is projected to become the third most populous nation in the world by 2050, surpassing the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.

Pakistan’s population, which was 31 million at the time of its independence in 1947, reached 241 million as per the 2023 census.

The country has been addressing population growth through various measures, including family planning programs, contraceptive distribution, and rural education campaigns.

Collaboration with international bodies, like the UN Population Fund, has also been a part of the government’s strategy. However, cultural and religious barriers, coupled with gender inequality and limited access to education, continue to impede progress.

The UN projects Pakistan’s population will exceed 380 million by 2050, with the fertility rate expected to decline further to 2.5 by 2054.

The report also highlighted that countries such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with Pakistan, will account for 43 percent of global births in 2024.

“Three other country examples … had fertility levels still above six live births per woman in 1994, declining by 2024 to 3.6 in Pakistan, 3.9 in Ethiopia and 4.4 in Nigeria,” the UN report states, forecasting further decline in fertility rates globally, but maintaining fertility above replacement levels in countries like Pakistan.

The UN has emphasised the importance of reducing adolescent birth rates through targeted interventions to alleviate social and economic pressures.

“Reducing growth in the numbers of live births in the future would allow governments and families to allocate resources more efficiently to invest in children and adolescent health and well-being,” the report notes.

Additionally, the UN has called for ending child marriages, improving sexual and reproductive healthcare access, and enhancing maternal care for young mothers. “Governments should also strengthen laws and enforcement mechanisms to protect the rights of girls and women,” the report advises.

As fertility rates decline in countries like Pakistan, efforts to improve education, gender equality, and healthcare access are crucial to ensuring a sustainable future for these nations.