ISLAMABAD:
When the United States imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities – including National Development Complex (NDC) – this week to target the country’s long-range missile program, one question remained unanswered: why the US is after Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.
It was often said that Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programs didn’t fit into US’ larger geostrategic objectives. The other factor for the US opposition to Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programs was because of the country’s economic, security and political vulnerabilities. The US is thought to have conducted war-games on how to secure Pakistan’s nuclear assets in case the South Asian nation slipped into chaos or any rouge elements took over.
However, for the first time a senior US official made a stunning claim about Pakistan’s long-range missile program. A senior White House official on Thursday said nuclear-armed Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities that eventually could allow it to strike targets well beyond South Asia, making it an “emerging threat” to the United States.
Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer’s surprise revelation underscored how far the once-close ties between Washington and Islamabad have deteriorated since the 2021 US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. It also raised questions about whether Pakistan has shifted the objectives of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs’ long intended to counter those of India, with which it has fought three major wars since 1947.
Speaking to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Finer said Pakistan has pursued “increasingly sophisticated missile technology, from long-range ballistic missile systems to equipment, that would enable the testing of significantly larger rocket motors”. If those trends continue, Finer said, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States”.
The number of nuclear-armed states with missiles that can reach the US homeland “is very small and they tend to be adversarial”, he continued, naming Russia, North Korea and China. “So, candidly, it’s hard for us to see Pakistan’s actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States,” Finer said.
His speech came a day after Washington announced a new round of sanctions related to Pakistan’s ballistic missile development program, including for the first time against the state-run defence agency that oversees the program.
There was no immediate official reaction to the latest claims by the US official. However, privately officials strongly dismissed the US concerns as “absurd”. One official explained that Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs were only aimed at thwarting India.
Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, according to the official, was part of the country’s overall deterence to ward off any misadventure from neighbouring India. “The claim that our missile program is a threat for the US is simply bizarre,” said another official.
Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile system in order to neutralise the Indian defense shield. As part of the program, Pakistan conducted the first test of Ababeel in January 2017, followed by its second test six years later in October 2023. During these six years, continuous work on this technology has been ongoing at NDC.
Ababeel has a range of 2,200km and can carry more than one war heads both nuclear and conventional. Pakistan also successfully tested Shaheen-III which has a range of 2,750km. Experts say none of the long-range missiles has a range beyond India.
But to target US or its interests, Pakistan requires a missile that ranges over 10,000km. One official said how on earth Washington has come to this conclusion that first Pakistan manufactures long-range missile and then hit the targets in the US.
Another fear of the US, some observers think, is that Pakistan’s missile program could pose a threat to its ally Israel. The real target of the US sanctions is to target Pakistan’s space program. The US is worried that Pakistan is trying to build a Space Launch Vehicle. The space launch vehicle has duel use. It can be used for satellite launch but at the same time for Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), which can have range from 8000 to 15000km.
But officials rubbished such claims, saying Pakistan’s space program was meant for peaceful use. Some observers think that the US, under the pretext of Pakistan’s missile program, is targeting the Chinese interests. The US has long feared that China is helping Pakistan’s missile and nuclear programs, a claim strongly dismissed by both sides.
The latest US move is reminiscent of the sanctions imposed on Pakistan after the US withdrawal in 1989 in wake of Soviet troops ouster from Afghanistan. The Pressler Amendment, which was passed in 1985 to keep an eye on Pakistan’s nuclear program, was finally invoked by the US President in 1990. Senior Bush refused to certify that Pakistan was not developing nuclear weapons, leading to cutting of all security and other assistance.
Officials said such moves by the US would only deepen trust deficit and lend credence to voices who believe that Washington has never been a trustworthy partner of Islamabad.
They added that previously Pakistan had shown that such sanctions made little impact and the latest one would also prove to be counterproductive.
