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Five years ago, the Taliban entered Kabul, ending two decades of war after the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government and the chaotic withdrawal of US and NATO forces. The Taliban declared victory and promised that this time their rule would be different. Five years on, they have achieved one undeniable feat: they have consolidated control over virtually the entire country. But the more important question is whether they have succeeded in governing Afghanistan better. That record remains deeply contested.
Afghanistan is certainly quieter today. The large-scale war that defined the country for two decades has ended. But there is an important caveat to the Taliban’s claim of having delivered peace: they themselves were the insurgency fighting the Afghan government and foreign forces. Taliban suicide attacks, roadside bombs and armed assaults killed thousands of Afghan civilians and security personnel during those years. Today, those attacks against the Afghan state have largely disappeared because the Taliban are themselves the Afghan state.
The reduction in violence is real, and for many Afghans living in former battle zones, it has brought relief. But ending an insurgency after capturing power is not the same as building a peaceful, stable and inclusive society. The sharpest criticism concerns women and girls. When the Taliban returned to Kabul, they assured the world that women would be allowed to study and work within an Islamic framework. However, girls remain barred from secondary education, women are excluded from universities and severe restrictions have pushed women out of much of public and economic life. UNESCO estimates that about 2.4 million Afghan girls have been excluded from secondary education since the Taliban takeover. Five years is not a short disruption. It is an entire educational cycle. A girl who was 11 when the Taliban returned is now 16. She has lost five formative years of education, with consequences that will be felt in Afghanistan’s workforce, healthcare system and economy for decades.
The economic picture is more complicated. The World Bank estimates real GDP grew by around 4.8 per cent in 2025. But growth has not translated into broad prosperity. Poverty and food insecurity remain major challenges, unemployment is high and the return of millions of Afghans from neighbouring countries is placing additional pressure on a fragile economy. The economy has survived, but has not been transformed.
There is a security question too – one that also brings Pakistan into sharp focus.
The Taliban have repeatedly pledged that Afghan territory will not be used against other countries. Yet the UN continues to identify the presence of several terrorist organisations in Afghanistan, including Daesh and TTP. For Pakistan, the TTP issue has become the defining problem in bilateral relations. Pakistan had supported the peace process, facilitated talks and repeatedly advocated engagement with the new Afghan authorities. Five years later, that calculation looks badly misplaced. Relations have deteriorated over TTP, border security, trade, refugee returns and the Durand Line. For Islamabad, the principle is straightforward: Afghan territory must not be used to launch attacks against Pakistan. Until that concern is addressed, a meaningful reset in relations will remain difficult.
So what have the five years of Taliban rule produced? The Taliban have maintained control despite diplomatic isolation and economic pressure. Conventional war has ended, and the economy has survived, but prosperity remains elusive. And alongside these gains is a deeply troubling record on women’s rights, limited political space, continuing humanitarian pressures and the presence of militant groups. The Taliban have won the war. But winning a war and successfully governing a country are two very different things. Five years later, they have demonstrated that they can hold power. The bigger question is whether they can use that power to build a better Afghanistan. Prospects look very bleak.
